Press release 24/6/2014

Finger millet, more commonly known as ragi, is a cereal widely grown in the African and Asian continents is used as a major substitute for rice among the diabetic patients and also the diet conscious people. It is one of the few cereals that needn’t be polished making it healthier than its counterparts. 

More than 80 per cent of the crop is grown as Kharif season. In 2012-13 India produced 19.29 lakh tonne of ragi from 13.07 lakh hectares with an average productivity of 1641 kg per hectare. Karnataka is the largest producer of ragi in India, contributing to 67 per cent of the country’s production followed by Tamil Nadu (11%), Uttarakhand (9%) and Maharashtra (7%). In Karnataka the area under the crop was 8.34 lakh hectares leading to a production of 13.07 lakh tonne in 2012-13. Ragi from India is exported to Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Srilanka. Export demand for ragi exists all round the year. Prices of ragi peak during June–November before a slide in December–January. And the bumper production – both in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu during the crop year 2013-14.

To help the farmers in taking a right decision on sowing ragi, the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the modal prices of ragi that prevailed in Hassan market during the last twelve years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of ragi for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of ragi traders was conducted. Based on the analysis, market survey. It is forecasted that ragi would fetch a modal price of around Rs.1500-1700 per quintal during harvesting months of November to December 2014. The support price for ragi was fixes at Rs.1300 plus incentive of Rs.500 per quintal in Karnataka during 2013-14. Keeping in view of the higher labour and input costs, there is a need for evolving suitable mechanism to maintain prices at remunerative levels. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to take up sowing of certified ragi seeds for better price realization. Farmers need to know the probable prices at the time of crop harvest. This coincides with the november-december months. This is a harvest season forecast hence seven months forecast is provided for kharif 2014.

ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out using Eviews software. The monthly prices of Ragi, for the period of April 2002- May 2014 for the Hassan market were taken for analysis. From the results of Table 1, it could be inferred that the Ragi market had no volatility in prices. The sum of Alpha and Beta not indicated ARCH and GARCH effect for the given market. The value not close to 1 indicates non persistence of shocks or volatility in the market.

Table 1. The results of ARCH-GARCH analysis using Eviews software

Variable

Ragi

Alpha (A)

0.995566

Beta (B)

-0.430296

Sum of A & B

0.55364

 

Table2. The results of ARIMA using SPSS software

Models

0 1 0

0 0 1

0 1 1

1 0 0

1 0 1

1 1 0

1 1 1

2 1 2

1 1 2

0 2 1

1 2 1

AIC

1887.26

2053.37

1852.23

1899.53

1870.23

1867.54

1853.48

1816.48

1813.13

1882.26

1863.28

SBC

1890.24

2059.33

1858.19

1905.50

1879.18

1873.49

1862.41

1831.37

1825.04

1888.20

1872.19

The plots of predicted and actual values fitted well for 010 model and hence it is retained

II. Forecasted Price for Red gram using best model (010)

Months

Predicted prices

Upper

Lower

June 2014

1325.79310

678.01605

1973.57015

July 2014

1332.24138

605.57836

2058.90440

August 2014

1338.68966

540.02121

2137.35810

September 2014

1345.13793

479.62564

2210.65023

October 2014

1351.58621

423.27598

2279.89644

November 2014

1358.03448

370.20032

2345.86865

December 2014

1364.48276

319.83885

2409.12667

  

Table 3. The results of ANN using Alyuda forecaster

Number of good forecasts training & test sets

       87%  &  92%

June 2014

1652.42

July 2014

2039.03

August 2014

1442.38


Authors:

Authors:

Bangalore NCAP team

Dr.C.P.Gracy, Nagashree, N., Mangala V Reddy

Department of Agricultural marketing co-operation and business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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