19/7/2014

Potato is the third most important food crop in the world which is consumed by more than a billion people. The demand for potato is much higher worldwide and will increase in the future especially from developing nations.

Food and Agriculture Organization of UN has declared potato as 'Food for future'. India is the second largest producer and has one of the largest consumers of potato with more than 10 per cent share in the world potato production after China, which was share of 22 per cent.

India produced 447 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 19.65 lakh hectares in 2012-13. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Gujarat accounted for 85 per cent share in total area and production in 2012-13. The area and production of potato were 47.5 thousand hectares and 504.1thousand tonnes, respectively in Karnataka during 2012-13. Most of the potato produced in the country is consumed within the country witha little export mainly to neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

The top five producers in the world are China (74.8 mMT), India (41.565 mMT), Russia (21.1 mMT), Ukraine (18.7 mMT) and US (18.3 mMT). India has exported about 11.14 lakh tonnes of potato in 2012-2013, which is 13 per cent more than that of 2011-12. The major potato growing districts in Karnataka are Hassan (more than 41%), Chikkaballapura, Chikmagalore, Belgaum, Dharwad, Bangalore Rural and Kolar.

Potato is sown in India in Kharif and Rabi seasons. Kharif produce is available in the market from August to October, which accounts for 15 to 20%. From mid-December to mid-April Rabi produce is available in the market which accounts for 80 to 85%. Only, the rabi potato is stored till November and is made available steadily for domestic as well as export markets.

So, for the benefit of farmers, the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the modal prices of potato that prevailed in Hassan market during the last twelve years and Statistical analysis was carried out to predict the prices of potato for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of potato traders was conducted. Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that potato would fetch a modal price of around Rs.2000-2500 per quintal (as per the traders survey) during July to September 2014. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to take up disease free, quality tubers potato for sowing, further farmers have to take up necessary plant protection against potato blight disease as Hassan in porn for this disease. Farmers need to know the probable prices at the time of crop harvest. This coincides with the november-december months. This is a harvest season forecast hence five months forecast is provided for kharif 2014.

ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out using Eviews software. The monthly prices of Potato, for the period of April 2002- Jan 2014 for the Hassan market were taken for analysis. From the results of Table 1, it could be inferred that the Potato market had volatility in prices. The sum of Alpha and Beta indicated ARCH and GARCH effect for the given market. The value close to 1 indicates persistence of shocks or volatility in the market.

Table 1: The results of ARCH-GARCH analysis using Eviews software

Variable

Potato

Alpha (A)

0.767508

Beta (B)

0.195137

Sum of A & B

0.962645

Table 2: Forecast through Eviews

Month

Eviews Predicted

Feb-14

1265

Mar-14

1315

Apr-14

1301

May-14

1319

Jun-14

1317

Jul-14

1329

Aug-14

1331

Sep-14

1339

 Table 3: Forecast through ARIMA (Time Series Forecasting System) in SAS

Model

AIC

SBC

RMSE

R2

1,1,0

1402.7

1411.6

141.58

0.714

1,1,1

1392.7

1404.5

135.67

0.737

2,1,0

1399.4

1411.2

138.92

0.725

3,1,1

1395.6

1413.3

135.17

0.739

1,0,1

1406.6

1418.4

137.63

0.730

2,0,1

1399.7

1414.5

133.39

0.747

 

Table 4: Forecasted Price for Potato using best model (1,1,1) with SAS

Month

Predicted

Upper Limit

Lower Limit

Feb-14

1469

1739

1200

Mar-14

1465

1891

1039

Apr-14

1481

1995

966

May-14

1482

2087

878

Jun-14

1494

2167

821

Jul-14

1499

2240

757

Aug-14

1508

2308

707

Sep-14

1514

2372

656

Graph: Actual - Predicted Prices for Potato in Hassan Market

 

Table 5:The results of ANN Using Alyuda Forecaster for Potato

POTATO

Months

77-91%

February 2014

1257

March 2014

1192

April 2014

1360

May 2014

1477

June 2014

1554

July 2014

1416

August 2014

1232

September 2014

1436


RESEARCH TEAM

Dr.C.P.Gracy, Mangala V Reddy, Nagashree N, Sakamma S

Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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