Press release 24/6/2014

Red gram (Tur) is grown throughout the tropical and subtropical countries especially in south Asia, eastern and southern Africa, Latin America, Central America and South America. The major countries producing red gram are India, Myanmar, Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Nepal, Domenica Republic, Congo, Bangladesh, Haiti, Panama etc.

The major exporters of red gram are Myanmar, Domenica Republic and Malawi. However, India, Trinidad, Venezuela, Nepal and Mauritius are the major importers. Red Gram occupies 6.5 per cent of the world’s total pulses area and contributes 5.7 per cent to the total pulses production. India is the largest producer of red gram accounting about 64 per cent of total world production followed by Myanmar (22 per cent) and Malawi (6 per cent).

Like other pulses, red gram is grown under rain fed condition and about 96 per cent of red gram area is unirrigated. In terms of production Maharashtra is in the lead followed by Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Karnataka ranks second in area (562.13 thousand hectares) and production (366.3 thousand tones) of red gram in the country. The major trading centers of red gram in Karnataka are Gulbarga, Sedam, Yadgiri, Bidhar, Bijapura, Bellary and Bagalkote.

Gulbarga region is known as Tur bowl of Karnataka. Farmers in this region are waiting for the onset of monsoon to take up sowing operation.  But, because of uncertainty of prices of Tur at the time of harvest, farmers are in a state of confusion regarding sowing of this crop.  Hence, in order to assist and help the farmers through predicting the prices of Tur at the time of harvesting of the crop, the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the markets modal prices of redgram that prevailed in Gulberga market during the last twelve years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of Red gram for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of Red gram traders was conducted. Based on the analysis, Market survey and considering the price trends of other pulses in the country, government policies with regard to the marketing and international trade in Tur. It is forecasted that Red gram would fetch a modal price of around Rs.4300-4800 per quintal during this Kharif 2014 harvest months of November-December 2014. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to sow quality seeds for better price realization.

ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out using Eviews software. The monthly prices of Red gram, for the period of April 2002- May 2014 for the Gulbarga market were taken for analysis. From the results of Table 1, it could be inferred that the Red gram market had no volatility in prices. The sum of Alpha and Beta not indicated ARCH and GARCH effect for the given market. The value not close to 1 indicates non persistence of shocks or volatility in the market.

Table 1. The results of ARCH-GARCH analysis using Eviews software

Variable

Red gram

Alpha (A)

0.973869

Beta (B)

-0.046381

Sum of A & B

0.927488

Table2. The results of ARIMA using SPSS software

Models

0 1 0

0 0 1

0 1 1

1 0 0

1 0 1

1 1 0

1 1 1

2 1 2

1 1 2

0 2 1

1 2 1

AIC

2051.73

2310.76

2052.94

2068.93

2070.51

2052.86

2054.41

2052.78

2056.72

2045.56

2048.18

SBC

2054.70

2316.73

2058.89

2074.90

2079.46

2058.84

2063.34

2067.66

2068.63

2051.53

2057.09

The plots of predicted and actual values fitted well for 010 model and hence it is retained

 

II. Forecasted Price for Red gram using best model (010)

Months

Predicted prices

Upper

Lower

June 2014

4208.45517

3643.17124

4773.73910

July 2014

4225.91034

3423.74504

5028.07565

August 2014

4243.36552

3257.58167

5229.14936

September 2014

4260.82069

3118.69647

5402.94491

October 2014

4278.27586

2997.06432

5559.48740

November 2014

4295.73103

2887.56356

5703.89851

December 2014

4313.18621

2787.16340

5839.20901

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 3. The results of ANN using Alyuda forecaster

Months

94% & 96%

June 2014

4164.80

July 2014

4093.48

August 2014

4022.93


Authors:

Bangalore NCAP team

Dr.C.P.Gracy, Nagashree, N., Mangala V Reddy

Department of Agricultural marketing co-operation and business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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