19/7/2014 

Banana (Musa sp.) has its origin in tropical region of South East Asia. The fruits are considered as “Gold Mine” of nutrients comprising of vitamins, minerals, carbohydrates and rich source of fiber.

Since the crop management requires low application of plant protection chemicals, banana is grouped under “Green Food”. 

Bananas are the fifth largest agricultural commodity in the world trade after cereals, sugar, coffee and cocoa. India, Ecuador, Brazil and China alone produce half of total bananas of the world. The advantage of this fruit is its availability round the year. The World area & production for banana are 57.26 mHA & 64.67 MT respectively.

In India, Banana ranks next only to mango in area and production. According to FAO estimates, India occupies the highest area under banana in the world. India ranks first in banana production, contributing about 32.6% in world pool of banana production with 11% of global banana area. The important banana growing states in India are: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, West Bengal, Bihar and Gujarat. India exports small quantities of bananas to Bahrain, Germany, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and USA.

Karnataka is one of the progressive states of India with great potential for development of fruit crops. The state is blessed with ten agro-climatic regions suitable for growing variety of fruits all round the year. The total area under fruit crops has increased from 383.9 ‘000HA in 1991-92 to 776.0 ‘000HA in 2012-13. The production of fruit crops has also gone up from 7790.0 ‘000T during 1991- 92 to 26509.1 ‘000T in 2012-13. The major districts growing fruit crops in the state are Kolar, Chikkaballapur, Belgaum, Bidar, Bangalore, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Dharwad, Mysore, Tumkur, Bagalkot and Chitradurga. Karnataka is firth largest banana producing State, producing about 7.66% of total production of banana in the country.

Binny Mill is the Major market for banana in Karnataka. The sowing period of banana in Karnataka starts from the mid of May upto September. The first crop is harvested after 11-13 months of planting. Therefore, for the benefit of farmers, the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the weekly modal prices of banana that prevailed in Binny Mill market during the last ten years and an econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of banana for the next three months. Also an opinion survey of banana traders was conducted.

ELAKKI BANANA

Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that elakki banana would fetch a modal price of around Rs. 24-26/ kg for next four months, But based on traders survey it is expected that the prices would go upto Rs. 45-50/kg due to the upcoming festivals. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to take suitable sowing decisions.

Due to large scale damage of Elakki Banana in Tamil Nadu and surrounding areas, the prices are likely to be firm in Binny Mill market. However, the local supply from Karnataka will commence from August-September when the prices are expected to ease little bit

Table 1: Forecast through ARIMA (Time Series Forecasting System) in SAS

Model

AIC

SBC

RMSE

R2

1,0,1

5196.4

5213.2

201.37

0.910

1,1,0

5161.7

5174.3

196.86

0.914

1,1,1

5160.7

5177.5

196.25

0.914

2,1,0

5158.6

5175.4

198.92

0.912

2,0,1

5186.5

5207.4

198.92

0.912

 

Table 2: Forecasted price for Elakki Banana using best model 2,1,0 with SAS

Weeks

Forecast

Upper Limit

Lower Limit

7-May-14

2461

2846

2075

14-May-14

2467

2949

1985

21-May-14

2470

3068

1872

28-May-14

2473

3155

1791

4-Jun-14

2476

3238

1714

11-Jun-14

2479

3311

1647

18-Jun-14

2482

3380

1584

25-Jun-14

2485

3444

1526

2-Jul-14

2488

3504

1472

9-Jul-14

2491

3561

1420

16-Jul-14

2494

3616

1372

23-Jul-14

2497

3668

1325

30-Jul-14

2499

3718

1281

6-Aug-14

2502

3767

1238

13-Aug-14

2505

3814

1197

20-Aug-14

2508

3859

1157

27-Aug-14

2511

3903

1119

3-Sep-14

2514

3946

1082

 

Graph 1:  Actual - Predicted for Elakki Banana

 

ROBUSTA

Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that Robusta would fetch a modal price of around Rs. 11-13 per kg for next four months. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to take suitable sowing decisions.

Table 3: Forecast through ARIMA (Time Series Forecasting System) in SAS

Model

AIC

SBC

RMSE

R2

1,0,1

3904.4

3921.2

52.86

0.913

1,1,1

3852.9

3869.6

50.56

0.920

1,1,0

3879.7

3892.2

52.07

0.915

2,1,0

3854.5

3871.3

50.65

0.920

2,1,1

3854.0

3875.0

50.52

0.920

 

Table 4: Forecasted price for Robusta using best model (1,1,1) with SAS

Weeks

Forecast

Upper Limit

Lower Limit

7-May-14

1035

1134

935

14-May-14

1040

1153

927

21-May-14

1041

1165

918

28-May-14

1043

1175

910

4-Jun-14

1044

1185

903

11-Jun-14

1045

1194

896

18-Jun-14

1046

1203

890

25-Jun-14

1047

1211

884

2-Jul-14

1048

1219

878

9-Jul-14

1050

1227

872

16-Jul-14

1051

1234

867

23-Jul-14

1052

1242

862

30-Jul-14

1053

1249

857

6-Aug-14

1054

1256

852

13-Aug-14

1055

1263

848

20-Aug-14

1056

1269

843

27-Aug-14

1058

1276

839

3-Sep-14

1059

1282

835

 

Graph 2:  Actual – Predicted for Robusta

 

 

ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out using Eviews software. The weekly prices of banana, for the period of December 2004- April 2014 for the Binny mill market were taken for analysis. From the results of Table 5, it could be inferred that the banana market had no volatility in prices. The sum of Alpha and Beta values did not indicate the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects for the given market. According to the test statistic, the sum of alpha and beta value not equal to 1 indicates the need for applying ARCH-GARCH models for price prediction. Hence regular ARIMA and other analytical tools for price predictions are used.

 Table 5: The results of ARCH-GARCH analysis using Eviews software

Variable

Robusta

Elakki

Alpha (A)

0.987685

0.978810

Beta (B)

-0.461512

-0.161523

Sum of A & B

0.526173

0.817287

Table 6: The results of ANN Using Alyuda Forecaster for Robusta and Elakki Banana

ROBUSTA

ELAKKI

Weeks

93-99%

Weeks

86-99%

7-May-14

1059

7-May-14

2313

14-May-14

1035

14-May-14

2168

21-May-14

926

21-May-14

2428

28-May-14

954

28-May-14

2357

4-Jun-14

864

4-Jun-14

2692

11-Jun-14

919

11-Jun-14

2536

18-Jun-14

918

18-Jun-14

2649

25-Jun-14

982

25-Jun-14

2422

2-Jul-14

879

2-Jul-14

2416

9-Jul-14

948

9-Jul-14

2306

16-Jul-14

784

16-Jul-14

2362

23-Jul-14

886

23-Jul-14

2431

30-Jul-14

873

30-Jul-14

2569

6-Aug-14

909

6-Aug-14

2755

13-Aug-14

937

13-Aug-14

2785

20-Aug-14

950

20-Aug-14

2659

27-Aug-14

818

27-Aug-14

2798

3-Sep-14

933

3-Sep-14

2760 


RESEARCH TEAM

Dr. C. P. Gracy, Mangala V Reddy, Nagashree.N, Sakamma S

Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65