India’s contribution to global output is 3.5% (24.4 mt, (2010-11)). The International Grains Council predicts record maize output of about 900 million tonne coupled with global demand forecast of 893 million tonne. Global maize trade is forecast to be around 100 million tonne during 2012-13.
The US is the largest exporter of maize, while India contributes just 1 percent of global trade.
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Rajasthan are the top three maize producing states in India. Davanagere is the major maize producing district in Karnataka accounting for 1/3rd of the state’s production. Traders opined that demand from bio-fuel and livestock feed industries and exports have pushed up maize futures prices. Crops like sunflower or cotton during kharif season compete for maize area. Farmers in Davanagere are interested to know the likely prices of maize during the coming harvest season.
The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre under NAIP Project of the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore has conducted econometric analysis of modal prices of maize for Davanagere market, to help the farmers in taking decision on whether to sow the crop. An analysis of prices was undertaken to forecast the prices of maize during harvest period.
The results of the analysis revealed that the prices are expected to be in the range of Rs.1100-1200 per Quintal during October-November 2012 in Davanagere market. Hence farmers are recommended to sow hybrids which could yield bold grains with deep yellow color. The forecast is subjected to change with changes in fuel price, export policy, rainfall and occurrence of poultry diseases.