30/1/2015

Red gram (Tur) is grown throughout the tropical and subtropical countries especially in south Asia, eastern and southern Africa, Latin America, Central America and South America.

The major countries producing red gram are India, Myanmar, Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Nepal, Dominican Republic, Congo, Bangladesh, Haiti, Panama etc.

The major exporters of red gram are Myanmar, Dominican Republic and Malawi. However, India, Trinidad, Venezuela, Nepal and Mauritius are the major importers. Red Gram occupies 6.5 per cent of the world’s total pulses area and contributes 5.7 per cent to the total pulses production. India is the largest producer of red gram accounting about 64 per cent of total world production followed by Myanmar (22 per cent) and Malawi (6 per cent).

Like other pulses, red gram is grown under rain fed condition and about 96 per cent of red gram area is unirrigated. In terms of production Maharashtra is in the lead followed by Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Karnataka ranks second in area (562.13 thousand hectares) and production (366.3 thousand tones) of red gram in the country. The major trading centers of red gram in Karnataka are Gulbarga, Sedam, Yadgiri, Bidhar, Bijapura, Bellary and Bagalkote.

Gulbarga region is known as ‘tur bowl’ of Karnataka. Tur crop harvesting has commenced and farmers are anxious to know the prices during the next three months to decide on the selling or storage decisions. Hence, in order to assist the farmers for suitable decision the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the modal prices of red gram that prevailed in Gulbarga market during the last ten years and econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of Red gram for the harvesting months. Also an opinion survey of red gram traders was conducted. Based on the analysis, market survey and considering the price trends of other pulses in the country, government policies with regard to the marketing and international trade in tur. It is forecasted that Red gram would fetch a modal price of around Rs.5133-5184 per quintal during this Kharif 2014 harvest months of February 2015-April 2015. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & monsoon and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to store the produce to sell after this peak harvesting for better price realization.

Table 2: Forecast Results for Redgram using the best fit model 111 with SAS

Month

Forecasted Price

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

Feb-15

5133

4647

5618

Mar-15

5148

4365

5931

April-15

5184

4228

6141

ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out in SAS. The monthly prices of Red gram, for the period of Jan-2005 to Jan-2015 for Gulbarga market were taken for analysis. From the Graph 2, it could be inferred that the Red gram market had volatility in prices. And the prices are dependent on the arrivals in the market.

Table 2: The results of ANN Using Alyuda Forecaster for Red Gram

Months

93-100%

Feb-15

5034

Mar-15

4995

April-15

5056


RESEARCH TEAM

Dr. M. S. Jayaram, Dr. C. P. Gracy, Dr. M. R. Girish, Mangala V Reddy, Sakamma S

Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management

    UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65

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