Banana (Musa sp.) has its origin in tropical region of South East Asia. The fruits are considered as “Gold Mine” of nutrients comprising of vitamins, minerals, carbohydrates and rich source of fiber. Since the crop management requires low application of plant protection chemicals, banana is grouped under “Green Food”.
Bananas are the fifth largest agricultural commodity in the world trade after cereals, sugar, coffee and cocoa. India, Ecuador, Brazil and China alone produce half of total bananas of the world. The advantage of this fruit is its availability round the year. The Worlds’ area & production for banana are 57.26 mHA & 64.67 mt respectively.
In India, Banana ranks next only to mango in area and production. According to FAO estimates, India occupies the highest area under banana in the world. India ranks first in banana production, contributing about 32.6% in world pool of banana production with 11% of global banana area. The important banana growing states in India are: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, West Bengal, Bihar and Gujarat. India exports small quantities of bananas to Bahrain, Germany, Nepal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and USA.
Karnataka is one of the progressive states of India with great potential for development of fruit crops. The total area under banana crop is 102.71 ‘000HA in 2013-14 with a production of 2675.63 ‘000T. Karnataka is firth largest banana producing State, producing about 7.66% of total production of banana in the country. The major districts growing banana are Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Belgaum, Bangalore, Dharwad, Tumkur, Bagalkot and Chitradurga.
Binny Mill located in Bangalore is the special APMC for banana in Karnataka. Therefore, for the benefit of farmers, the NCAP Network project on Market Intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management, UAS Bangalore collected the weekly modal prices of banana that prevailed in Binny Mill market during the last five years and an econometric analysis was carried out to predict the prices of banana for the next four weeks. Also an opinion survey of banana traders was conducted.
In order to forecast a response series using an ARIMA model with exogenous variables, and the values of the input series corresponding to the forecast periods. ARIMAX runs a linear regression of Prices on Arrivals producing the same results as PROC REG or any other SAS regression procedure. The t-value of the Arrivals series shows that arrivals are positively related to Prices and the statistic is highly significant.
ARCH-GARCH analysis was carried out in SAS. The weekly prices of Banana (Elakki & Robusta) for the period of Jan-2010 to Mid-week Feb2015 for Binny Mill market were taken for analysis. From the Graph 7, it could be inferred that the banana market had volatility in prices. And the prices are dependent on the arrivals in the market.
Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that elakki banana would fetch a modal price of around Rs. 20-21/ kg for next four weeks. This forecast prevails for current market sentiments & climatic conditions and could vary with changes in the market situation and rainfall. Farmers are advised to take suitable selling decisions.
Based on the analysis and Market survey, it is forecasted that Robusta would fetch a modal price of around Rs. 11-12 per kg for next four weeks. Farmers are advised to take suitable harvesting decisions.
Dr. M. S. Jayaram, Dr. C. P. Gracy, Dr. M. R. Girish
Mangala V Reddy, Sakamma S
Department of Agricultural Marketing, Co-operation and Business Management
UAS, GKVK, Bangalore-65